America is in the grips of a once in a lifetime Public Health crisis, an Economic crisis that rivals the Great Depression, and a nation wide Social Crisis that is reminiscent of the 1960s.
First and foremost, until we solve the Public Health crisis, the Economic crisis will not be solved. We are not returning to normal anytime soon.
Consumer psychology has been forever altered, and consumer spending accounts for approx. 70% of America’s economy.
Anyone who believes we are going to have a fast V shaped or U shaped recovery, is either a fool, or politician running for re-election.
The more realistic outcome, is a long drawn out recovery, that looks like a Nike Swoosh. A long and painful process.
Think about the American economy from a macro economic perspective, in its simplest graphic form, a Supply and Demand curve.
Covid19 has obliterated 20% to 40% of BOTH curves, seriously what is left ?
40 to 50 million, idle, angry, desperate, unemployed Americans, make for a very volatile mix, which is jet fuel for our current Social Crisis.
These 3 crisis will have profound impacts on real estate markets, especially on a region by region basis.
On the Commercial front, many Mom and Pop landlords will be wiped out, small strip malls will become vacant, office vacancies will rise, the hollowing out of middle America will continue.
Commercial, Retail and Industrial real estate prices are currently in free fall in many parts of the Country.
On the Residential side, some regions of our Country will prosper, others will be gutted. States like Florida will be big winners, others not so lucky.
America has been dealt the trifecta from Hell, our Country teeters on the brink of collapse. This is the greatest challenge of our Lifetime.
And we are all going to be asked to step up, in rebuilding the Country we love. God Bless America.
